Adoption of CNG by fleets such as Waste Management is driving natural gas adoption to a tipping point, study says.
Adoption of natural gas fuel by trucking fleets is approaching a critical threshold, which ultimately could lead to enormous gas demand growth at the expense of diesel fuel, says an energy market consulting firm in a new study. However, that’s assuming that a number of hurdles are removed, especially for adoption in Class 8 highway trucks.
PIRA Energy Group, a NYC-based energy market consulting firm, released a report that addresses both medium- and longer-term natural gas prospects in the U.S. transportation fuel market. PIRA says the sheer volume of U.S. recoverable gas resources relative to expected demand suggests that benchmark Henry Hub natural gas prices will remain deeply discounted relative to oil prices beyond this decade. The lower prices are driving fleets commercial trucking, corporate and government fleets to move to the cheaper alternative.
The lengthy period of low-cost natural gas relative to oil has tremendously broadened support for the view that inexpensive North American gas is here to stay, says the group.
PIRA’s report concludes that future gas demand in such NGVs has enormous upside potential, led by private sector initiatives, with or without federal government assistance.
In an overall “high case” scenario, NGV gas demand would be capable of reaching 14 billion cubic feet per day by 2030, suggesting that as much as 2.4 million barrels per day of diesel fuel demand could be at risk, says the report. Liquefied natural gas used in Class 8 trucks would be responsible for approximately 70% of that total, while fleet vehicles using compressed natural gas would account for the rest.
The group notes, however, that the “high case” scenario could be adversely affected by infrastructure hurdles, technological uncertainties, and other issues — especially the heavy trucking fuel scenario.
That’s why PIRA’s Reference Case forecasts natural gas will capture a more moderate, but also impressive, 7 billion cubic feet per day share of the U.S. on-highway transportation fuels market by 2030. This scenario marks down Class 8 truck natural gas demand by almost two-thirds to 3.6 BCF/D — but for fleet vehicles using CNG, it pegs natural gas demand at 3.4 BCF/D in 2030, or only 15% below the high case, which underscores less complex hurdles in these fleets.
PIRA notes that a high degree of NGV visibility and share of new orders in the public transit and refuse market are standout examples of CNG vehicle growth taking root.
Challenges for LNG Adoption
Widespread LNG adoption for Class 8 trucking faces a number of stumbling blocks.
For starters, the market needs to build a consumer base for trucks that are not yet built, and that also lack a viable fueling infrastructure.
“The interdependence of these prerequisites leads to the conundrum of how to move forward in a way that all necessary steps can move together,” notes the company in a news release. “Although the timing remains quite speculative, the private sector appears to be responding to this challenge without help from the federal government, which previously looked essential.”
The success of natural gas marketers’ efforts to sell natural gas for trucks will be a driving force for both the sale of Class 8 trucks, as well as the capital investments for building the required fueling infrastructure. “When regional markets reach a critical consumer base threshold, the build-out of LNG fueling infrastructures can move forward,” PIRA notes.
Another pivotal building block will be the ability of manufacturers to produce and sell LNG trucks capable of satisfying the wide-ranging needs of commercial trucking. Currently, available LNG truck engine options lack medium-size engines that can compete effectively with diesel engines. But the Cummins / Westport Innovations (CWI) joint venture is scheduled to make available a 11.9-liter natural gas engine that can run LNG in early 2013.
“The implied payback period associated with this midsize LNG truck appears likely to generate high consumer interest,” PIRA says.
Learn more about natural gas in our special web section, “Natural Gas: What Fleets Need to Know.”
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4/9/2012 – Three Major Oil Companies Settle in “Hot Fuel” Lawsuit
BP Products North America Inc., ConocoPhillips Co. and Shell Oil Products US have agreed to settle lawsuits accusing the oil companies of profiting from “hot fuel,” gasoline or diesel fuel for which price has not been adjusted for temperature….
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4/4/2012 – DEF Pump Price Continues Downward Trend
The average U.S. diesel exhaust fluid pump price fell by 1 cent to $2.74 per gallon between February and March 2012. This continued a marginal downward trend, which has seen the price drop 2 cents since December 2011….
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4/3/2012 – Diesel Prices Fall, Rising Oil Prices Spark Talk of Opening SPR
The average price of diesel dropped by half a cent this week to $4.142 per gallon, ending a nine-week trend of price increases. Despite the decline, the price of diesel is still an average of 16.6 cents higher than this time last year, according to the Energy Information Administration’s weekly fuel update….
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4/3/2012 – EPA to Allow 15% Ethanol Fuel in Gasoline
The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency approved the first applications for registration of ethanol for use in making gasoline that contains up to 15% ethanol – known as E15….
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4/3/2012 – Illinois Plans Nation’s Largest Electric Vehicle Fast-Charging Network
Illinois Governor Pat Quinn and representatives from the Illinois Tollway, 350Green LLC and 7-Eleven Inc. announced plans to create the nation’s largest network of fast-charging electric vehicle stations….
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4/2/2012 – Alaska, Producers Reach Agreement on Point Thomson Natural Gas
Alaska Gov. Sean Parnell and a group of gas producers have reached an agreement to begin commercializing North Slope natural gas resources within the Alaska Gasline Inducement Act. …
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3/29/2012 – Irving Oil Offers First DEF Pump in Northern New England
Irving Oil‘s travel plaza in Kittery, Maine is now equipped with a diesel exhaust fluid pump, making it the most northern DEF pump dispenser in New England….
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3/28/2012 – Diesel Sees Slight Increase, Oil Ends Modestly Higher
Average diesel prices went up just a hair this week, according to the Energy Information Administration’s weekly fuel update. The half-cent increase took the average price to $4.147 per gallon….
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3/22/2012 – January-February Biodiesel Volume Slips from Late 2011 Growth
The U.S. biodiesel industry produced 135 million gallons of fuel in the first two months of 2012, according to new numbers released by the EPA Wednesday….
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3/20/2012 – Diesel Reaches Highest Price Since Summer 2008
The average diesel price spiked 1.9 cents this week to $4.142 a gallon, its highest price since the summer of 2008, according to the Energy Information Administration’s weekly fuel update….
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3/16/2012 – U.S. Fuel Exports to Double by 2015
U.S. exports of gasoline, diesel and other fuels will more than double in the next three years as refiners take advantage of a growing supply of domestic crudes and ship more fuel to emerging markets, according to UK research firm Wood Mackenzie….
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3/14/2012 – Louisiana Plant Turns Animal Fat Into Fuel
A high-fat diet might not be good for humans, but it could be great for trucks, trains, planes and cars. …
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3/13/2012 – Fuel Prices Rise Yet Again, Oil Prices Fall
The national average price for diesel is up yet again this week by almost 3 cents, from $4.094 to $4.123 per gallon, according to the Energy Information Administration’s weekly fuel update. This is the seventh week in a row that prices have risen. …
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3/13/2012 – White House Report Shows Drop in Oil Imports
The White House released a one-year American energy progress report showing that the U.S. has reduced dependence on foreign oil by more than 2 million barrels per day. …
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3/13/2012 – Dart Launches CNG Dedicated Service
Dart Transit launched a small fleet of CNG-powered tractors dedicated to Andersen Window Corp.…
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3/12/2012 – Diesel Exhaust Found to be ‘Negligible’ Contributor to One Type of Pollution
Contrary to what the scientific community expected, the exhaust fumes from gasoline vehicles are a bigger polluter than diesel exhaust when it comes to a specific type of pollution, according to a new study….
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